Global Warming: How does today's climate compare to history and the future?
5 minute read
Updated on: 14 Dec 2020
How will temperatures change in the future?
Climate models use several different scenarios of human behaviour to predict different possible future changes in temperature. These predictions, along with a range of possible results, are shown in the graph below .
The green line in this graph represents a future where there is no change or addition to current climate policies. It’s estimated that this would cause 4.5°C of global warming by 2100 .
If we implement climate policies such that CO₂ emissions peak at roughly 40Gt per year around 2040and become roughly constant at 15Gt per year after 2080 , the light blue line is more likely. This corresponds with 2.5°C of warming by 2100 .
The dark blue line represents a future where extremely rigorous and strict climate policiesare put into place during 2020 . This would still cause 1.6°C of global warming by 2100 .